Iran's Plans - The Best Article I've Read on the Topic

By Amir Tahiri - An Iranian Expat

CONFRONTATION or accommodation? As the U.N. Security Council's latest deadline for the Islamic Republic draws closer, that perennial question of Iranian politics is back at the center of debate in Tehran.
The confrontationists, led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, believe that the Bush administration, in its sunset phase, won't dare launch any major military operation against Iran. The most Bush can do is to order air and missile attacks on Iran's nuclear installations.
That would damage the project, perhaps setting it back by a year or two. But it would also, in this view, enable the revolutionary faction within the Khomeinist regime to marginalize its conservative rivals and consolidate its hold on power.
Once the U.S. attack is over, Ahmadinejad would produce TV footage of babies torn apart by American bombs and old widows weeping over the ruins of their mud huts. The president, who seeks the leadership of a global anti-American front, would claim victory simply by pointing out that he is still around. The tactic worked for the Lebanese Hezbollah last summer, as the group claimed an "unprecedented victory in the history of Islam" over the "infidel" after it survived the Israeli invasion.
So confident is Ahmadinejad that the United States has become a toothless tiger that he has ordered a series of operations in Afghanistan and Iraq to test the Americans.
In Afghanistan, the warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, whose forces are Iran-based, has moved onto the offensive against British forces in several places. At least two pro-Taliban warlords, Mullah Jalaleddin and Haji Akbar, have visited the Iranian city of Mashhad to coordinate future tactics against NATO forces with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Expect Tehran to heat things up in Afghanistan just before the Security Council ultimatum in March.
The Khomeinist leaders have also decided to test the Americans in Iraq. The latest attacks killed U.S. and U.K. soldiers in Karbala and Basra, two Shiite cities that had been calm for the past two years. This was a message to Washington that the Islamic Republic's clients in Iraq could open dozens of new fronts against the U.S.-led multinational force.

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